Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Trout homered to left center (380 feet).4–11
- 6Gasper doubled to right, Buxton scored.3–11
- 6Buxton tripled to right, Julien scored.3–10
- 6O'Hoppe homered to left center (412 feet).3–9
- 5Trout singled to right, Soler scored.2–9
- 4Larnach homered to right center (409 feet), Julien scored and Gasper scored.1–9
- 4Gasper singled to left, Bader scored, Julien to second.1–6
- 4Buxton hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.1–5
- 4Julien walked, France scored, Bader to second, Lee to third.1–4
- 3Larnach doubled to right, Gasper scored.1–3
- 3Buxton homered to left (419 feet).1–2
- 2Adell singled to left, Schanuel scored, Rengifo to third.1–1
- 1Correa hit sacrifice fly to center, Julien scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML LAA +155 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +61 Elo | MIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 6–622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148825th of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–8 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.