Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Nolan JonesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran doubled to center, Campbell scored, Narváez to third.13–3
- 7Rafaela homered to center (406 feet), González scored and Narváez scored.12–3
- 6Jones homered to right center (410 feet), Martínez scored and Ramírez scored.9–3
- 6Devers homered to right (362 feet).9–0
- 5Rafaela hit a ground rule double, Campbell scored.8–0
- 5González stole home, Campbell stole second, Campbell safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Schneemann.7–0
- 5González stole home, Campbell stole second, Campbell safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Schneemann.7–0
- 5Campbell singled to center, Bregman scored and Story scored, González to third.6–0
- 5Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored, Bregman to third.4–0
- 4Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to center, Campbell scored.3–0
- 2Rafaela flied out to center, Campbell scored on throwing error by center fielder Martínez, Narváez safe at second on error.2–0
- 2Refsnyder homered to left (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +15 Elo | CLE 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
| 30th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–9 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.