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New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

FinalYES, CLEGuardians.TV, MLB.TV

Away

Yankees

14-9

4–6

at

Home

Guardians

13-9

NYY 52%CLE 48%

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Progressive Field · YES, CLEGuardians.TV, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%NYYStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Yankees
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Clarke SchmidtPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Guardians
  • Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Gavin WilliamsPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right (383 feet), Goldschmidt scored.4–6
  • 7Domínguez homered to right center (445 feet), Volpe scored.2–6
  • 6Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.0–6
  • 4Rocchio singled to right, Martínez scored.0–5
  • 3Manzardo homered to right (366 feet).0–4
  • 3Ramírez homered to right (390 feet), Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.0–3

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 52%

Toss-upMiss
NYY 52%CLE 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYY 52%
ML NYY -120 / CLE +100
Pre-line forecast
NYY 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 54%
Ratings vs. market
+2.0 pts
NYY: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
NYY -109
CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYY 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYYCLEWhy
Team rating15391510Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+9−9NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +29 EloNYY 54.1%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 55.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 55.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
NYYStatCLE
2nd of 305.7Runs scored4.121st of 30
17th of 304.4Runs allowed4.314th of 30
4th of 30+1.4Margin−0.217th of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 107–32nd of 30
4th of 306–4Road vs home5–13rd of 30
12th of 301507Opponent Elo148029th of 30
3rd of 301539Elo rating151015th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

YankeesGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYYCLE
Run line11–1111–10
Last 105–57–3
Favorite10–84–3
Underdog1–37–7
Overs–unders12–1011–10
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYY 12–5 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.