Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Casas homered to right (372 feet), Devers scored and Bregman scored.8–5
- 7Crawford singled to left, Tellez scored, Rivas to second, Williamson to third.8–2
- 7Williamson singled to right, Arozarena scored, Tellez to second, Garver to third.7–2
- 6Rodríguez singled to left, Moore scored.6–2
- 6Rivas scored on throwing error by pitcher Bernardino, Moore safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Bernardino, Moore to second.5–2
- 5Devers grounded out to second, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.4–2
- 4González singled to right, Story scored, Casas to second.4–1
- 4Crawford homered to right center (386 feet), Williamson scored and Rivas scored.4–0
- 1Garver singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML SEA +120 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −8 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 147130th of 30 |
| 12th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–11 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–8 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.