Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Rowdy TellezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Kirk singled to center, Springer scored.1–3
- 2Roden hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.1–2
- 2Tellez homered to right (373 feet).1–1
- 1Santander hit sacrifice fly to left, Bichette scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML SEA +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 7–39th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 11th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 15–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 9–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–7 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.