Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Duran reached on infield single to second, Narváez scored on throwing error by second baseman Rivas, Duran to second.3–8
- 7Casas homered to center (396 feet), Abreu scored and Campbell scored.3–7
- 6Crawford singled to left, Williamson scored and Moore scored.3–4
- 5Bregman doubled to center, Devers scored and Rafaela scored, Bregman to third.1–4
- 3Bregman doubled to left, Rafaela scored, Devers to third.1–2
- 1Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Duran scored.1–1
- 1Polanco homered to right center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML SEA +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–415th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 146930th of 30 |
| 11th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–7 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.