Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Tyler HeinemanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Paxton SchultzPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tellez homered to right (393 feet), Garver scored.8–3
- 3Lukes hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.6–3
- 2Bichette singled to left, Wagner scored, Lukes to second.6–2
- 2Heineman reached on infield single to second, Barger scored, Wagner to second.6–1
- 2Garver singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to third.6–0
- 2Arozarena singled to left, Rivas scored and Williamson scored, Rodríguez to second.5–0
- 1Raleigh homered to left (398 feet), Rodríguez scored.3–0
- 1Moore homered to left center (364 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML SEA -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Easton Lucas: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 8–410th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 30 |
| 12th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 16–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 9–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–8 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.