Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Rowdy TellezBatting1-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Springer grounded out to third, Santander scored.8–4
- 12Tellez homered to right (430 feet), Raleigh scored, Arozarena scored and Raley scored.8–3
- 12Arozarena singled to right, Crawford scored, Raleigh to second, Rivas to third.4–3
- 7Williamson homered to left (398 feet).3–3
- 6Bichette singled to right, Clement scored.2–3
- 5Kirk singled to left, Giménez scored.2–2
- 5Raleigh doubled to right, Crawford scored and Williamson scored.2–1
- 1Santander singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML SEA -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +16 Elo | SEA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 8–310th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 16–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–8 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.