Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Narváez homered to right (334 feet).4–3
- 3Bregman singled to left, Duran scored.4–2
- 2Rodríguez grounded out to second, Rivas scored, Crawford to second.4–1
- 2Moore hit sacrifice fly to center, Williamson scored, Rivas to third.3–1
- 1Bregman homered to left center (398 feet).2–1
- 1Garver doubled to center, Arozarena scored and Moore scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML SEA +150 / BOS -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -161
- SEA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +17 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–516th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 147330th of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–8 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.