Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bregman reached on infield single to second, Duran scored, Devers to second.7–3
- 4Noel homered to left (381 feet), Martínez scored.6–3
- 4Martínez singled to center, Arias scored.6–1
- 3Duran stole home.6–0
- 3Duran stole home.6–0
- 3Duran tripled to right, Narváez scored.5–0
- 2Refsnyder walked, Devers scored, Story to second, Bregman to third.4–0
- 2Devers doubled to center, Duran scored.3–0
- 2Duran singled to center, Campbell scored.2–0
- 1Story singled to center, Devers scored, Bregman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Doug Nikhazy (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +25 Elo | CLE 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–9 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.