Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kwan reached on infield single to shortstop, Wilson scored.4–5
- 3Devers homered to right (381 feet).4–4
- 1Schneemann singled to right, Arias scored.3–4
- 1Arias singled to left, Ramírez scored, Arias to second.3–3
- 1Santana hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.3–2
- 1Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Jones to third.3–1
- 1Abreu homered to right (390 feet), Bregman scored and Story scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 40.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +14 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +67 Elo | CLE 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 7–23rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–8 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.