New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martínez reached on infield single to shortstop, Manzardo scored, Naylor to second.2–3
- 6Manzardo doubled to center, Jones scored.2–2
- 6Kwan scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Jones stole third.2–2
- 6Kwan scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Jones stole third.2–2
- 6Kwan scored, Jones stole third.2–1
- 6Kwan scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Jones stole third.2–1
- 6Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.2–0
- 1Rice homered to left center (377 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML NYY -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +7 Elo | CLE 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301538 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–12 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–6 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ CLE 6Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Oct 19NYY 5 @ CLE 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Hit
- Oct 18NYY 8 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 17NYY 5 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Hit
- Oct 15CLE 3 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 14CLE 2 @ NYY 5PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Aug 22CLE 0 @ NYY 6Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Aug 21CLE 1 @ NYY 8Picked NYY 65%Hit