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New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

FinalYES, CLEGuardians.TV, MLB.TV

Away

Yankees

15-10

5–1

at

Home

Guardians

14-10

NYY 60%CLE 40%

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Progressive Field · YES, CLEGuardians.TV, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%NYYStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Yankees
  • Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 2 RBI
  • Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Guardians
  • Steven KwanBatting1-4
  • Luis OrtizPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Wells doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.5–1
  • 2Goldschmidt singled to left, Rice scored, Judge to second.4–1
  • 2Rice singled to right, Domínguez scored.3–1
  • 1Ramírez singled to center, Arias scored on fielding error by center fielder Bellinger, Ramírez to third.2–1
  • 1Goldschmidt doubled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.2–0
  • 1Judge tripled to left, Rice scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 60%

LeanHit
NYY 60%CLE 40%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 60%
ML NYY -165 / CLE +140
Pre-line forecast
NYY 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 53%
Ratings vs. market
−6.6 pts
NYY: Elo 53.3%, market 59.9%
Fair odds
NYY -149
CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYY 4.7 – 3.8 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYYCLEWhy
Team rating15371513Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+13−4NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +23 EloNYY 53.3%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 56.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 59.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
NYYStatCLE
2nd of 305.5Runs scored4.120th of 30
15th of 304.4Runs allowed4.210th of 30
5th of 30+1.1Margin0.016th of 30
6th of 306–4Last 107–32nd of 30
5th of 306–6Road vs home7–13rd of 30
9th of 301508Opponent Elo148529th of 30
4th of 301537Elo rating151314th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

YankeesGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYYCLE
Run line12–1212–11
Last 105–56–4
Favorite10–94–4
Underdog2–38–7
Overs–unders13–1112–11
Overs–unders, last 103–76–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYY 12–7 CLE in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.