Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-3
- Gavin WilliamsPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jeffers homered to left center (412 feet), Clemens scored.11–1
- 6Gasper singled to right, France scored.9–1
- 6France doubled to center, Larnach scored and Buxton scored.8–1
- 5Noel singled to left, Arias scored.6–1
- 5Bader singled to right, Gasper scored, Bride to third.6–0
- 5Bride singled to left, Jeffers scored, Gasper to second.5–0
- 2Buxton singled to right, Bader scored and Bride scored, Julien to second.4–0
- 1Jeffers doubled to center, Correa scored, France thrown out at home.2–0
- 1Julien homered to center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML MIN +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–17 CLE in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 26.