Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-3
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-4
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Larnach singled to left, Bader scored.0–5
- 6Jeffers doubled to left, France scored and Larnach scored.0–4
- 6France doubled to left, Correa scored, Larnach to third.0–2
- 1France hit sacrifice fly to right, Julien scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML LAA +150 / MIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- LAA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +56 Elo | MIN 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 8–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–16 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–10 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.