Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ty FranceBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Manzardo homered to right (363 feet).1–2
- 5France homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 3Naylor homered to right (395 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML MIN +110 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +41 Elo | CLE 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 8–516th of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–17 CLE in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 27.