Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Martínez singled to right, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.3–4
- 10Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored.3–3
- 10Bride hit sacrifice fly to center, Gasper scored.3–2
- 7Correa singled to center, Vázquez scored, Julien to third.2–2
- 7Vázquez singled to center, Bader scored.1–2
- 4Noel homered to left center (450 feet).0–2
- 1Manzardo singled to center, Arias scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 45.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +13 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.821st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 10–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–15 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–19 CLE in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 29.