Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneemann homered to right (395 feet), Kwan scored, Arias scored and Naylor scored.5–3
- 8Schneemann homered to right (375 feet).1–3
- 5Heineman hit sacrifice fly to center, Clement scored.0–3
- 3Lukes walked, Santander scored, Barger to second, Springer to third.0–2
- 1Bichette homered to left center (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML CLE +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +1 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +16 Elo | TOR 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 11–611th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15134th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–19 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 12–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–6 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.