Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- J.C. EscarraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Escarra homered to right center (415 feet).1–5
- 6Escarra singled to right, Domínguez scored.1–4
- 6Domínguez doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–3
- 6Judge homered to right center (376 feet).1–2
- 3Santander homered to right (401 feet).1–1
- 1Grisham homered to right center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML TOR +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- TOR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +81 Elo | NYY 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 9–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Elo rating | 15403rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–10 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 13–15 NYY in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 28.