Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes homered to left (370 feet).1–5
- 6Diaz doubled to left, Walker scored, Rodgers to third.1–4
- 3Lukes homered to right center (366 feet).1–3
- 1Rodgers hit sacrifice fly to left, Peña scored.0–3
- 1Walker singled to center, Alvarez scored, Peña to third.0–2
- 1Peña reached on infield single to third, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 42.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +54 Elo | HOU 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 7–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–7 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–9 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.