Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Astros- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodgers doubled to left, Peña scored and Diaz scored, Smith to third.0–7
- 7Alvarez singled to right, Dezenzo scored.0–5
- 5Paredes singled to right, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.0–4
- 5Altuve doubled to left, Dezenzo scored and Rodgers scored.0–3
- 5Dezenzo doubled to right, Smith scored, Rodgers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML TOR +125 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +4 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Elo rating | 152112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–6 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–8 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.