Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger singled to left, Heineman scored.4–2
- 9Kirk doubled to center, Giménez scored and Springer scored.3–2
- 8Wells hit sacrifice fly to right, Bellinger scored.1–2
- 7Cabrera singled to left, Volpe scored.1–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TOR +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −11 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +72 Elo | NYY 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 8–413th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 15393rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–9 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–16 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–14 NYY in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.