Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger doubled to center, Straw scored.2–11
- 8Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bellinger scored, Goldschmidt safe at second on error by shortstop Clement.1–11
- 6Goldschmidt doubled to right, Bellinger scored.1–10
- 5Cabrera doubled to right, Domínguez scored and Wells scored.1–9
- 5Volpe homered to right (356 feet).1–7
- 3Wells doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Volpe scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.1–6
- 3Volpe walked, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Goldschmidt to third.1–3
- 3Chisholm Jr. walked, Rice scored, Goldschmidt to second, Judge to third.1–2
- 3Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Cabrera scored.1–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. grounded out to third, Bichette scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML TOR +170 / NYY -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -181
- TOR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +10 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +66 Elo | NYY 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–9 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–17 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 13–14 NYY in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 27.