Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Casas grounded out to third, Abreu scored, Campbell to third.10–2
- 9Campbell doubled to left, Bregman scored, Abreu to third.9–2
- 8Duran grounded out to second, Rafaela scored, Narváez to second.8–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to center (421 feet), Bichette scored.7–2
- 3Abreu homered to center (422 feet), Bregman scored and Story scored.7–0
- 3Devers homered to right (422 feet).4–0
- 2Campbell homered to right (346 feet).3–0
- 1Bregman homered to left (410 feet).2–0
- 1Duran homered to right center (378 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +9 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 8–517th of 30 |
| 30th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 10–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 16–14 TOR in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 30.