Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Anthony SantanderBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to second, Springer to third.6–7
- 7Santander homered to right (398 feet), Clement scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.6–6
- 6Kirk homered to left center (424 feet).6–3
- 6Varsho homered to right center (403 feet), Springer scored.6–2
- 6Narváez homered to left center (410 feet), Rafaela scored.6–0
- 2Devers doubled to center, Duran scored.4–0
- 2Duran singled to left, Rafaela scored.3–0
- 1Bregman homered to left (397 feet).2–0
- 1Devers scored on a balk.1–0
- 1Devers scored on a balk.0–0
- 1Devers scored on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML BOS -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −10 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 8–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 15143rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–15 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 17–14 TOR in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.