Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lukes singled to right, Springer scored and Varsho scored, Lukes to second.3–5
- 6Santana singled to right, Schneemann scored.3–3
- 5Springer homered to center (407 feet).2–3
- 4Naylor homered to center (410 feet).2–2
- 3Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Santander scored on error, Kirk safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Kwan, Springer safe at third on error.1–2
- 2Santana homered to right (345 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML CLE +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −6 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 10–616th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15134th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–18 | 18–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 12–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–5 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.