Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (404 feet), Lukes scored and Bichette scored.2–4
- 7Varsho homered to left (356 feet).2–1
- 5Bregman doubled to left, Refsnyder scored and Hamilton scored, Devers to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −10 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 9–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 15134th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 17–15 TOR in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.