Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored.5–4
- 9Santana walked, Martínez scored, Manzardo to second, Kwan to third.5–3
- 4Giménez singled to center, Roden scored and Lukes scored.4–3
- 4Lukes doubled to left, Barger scored, Roden to third.4–1
- 4Arias singled to right, Santana scored and Schneemann scored, Arias out stretching at second.4–0
- 4Schneemann doubled to right, Manzardo scored, Santana to third.2–0
- 3Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arias scored, Martínez out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +13 Elo | CLE 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 11–713th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–19 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 13–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–6 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.