St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-4
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Scott II grounded into fielder's choice to first, Walker scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Pagés out at second, Scott II to second.10–0
- 8Contreras walked, Scott II scored, Donovan to second, Winn to third.9–0
- 8Pagés scored, Winn to second, Scott II to third on wild pitch by Sims.8–0
- 8Pagés scored on Sims wild pitch, Winn to second on wild pitch by Sims, Scott II to third on wild pitch by Sims.8–0
- 8Winn singled to right, Walker scored, Scott II to second, Pagés to third.7–0
- 5Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Contreras scored, Herrera to third.6–0
- 5Herrera doubled to left, Arenado scored, Contreras to third.5–0
- 4Scott II hit sacrifice fly to left, Pagés scored.4–0
- 3Herrera hit sacrifice fly to left, Donovan scored.3–0
- 1Contreras doubled to left, Nootbaar scored and Winn scored, Arenado to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML STL -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- STL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +17 Elo | STL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 10–920th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 146424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–18 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–16 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–5 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.