Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Amed RosarioBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario singled to left, Crews scored and Abrams scored.8–6
- 7Abrams singled to center, García Jr. scored, Abrams to second, Crews to third.8–4
- 6Ramírez singled to left, Kwan scored, Schneemann to second.8–3
- 6Rocchio grounded out to third, Martínez scored.7–3
- 6Naylor scored on Chafin wild pitch, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Chafin.6–3
- 6Naylor scored on Chafin wild pitch, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Chafin.6–3
- 6Martínez singled to center, Arias scored and Santana scored, Naylor to second.5–3
- 6Santana doubled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez scored and Schneemann scored.3–3
- 3García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored.0–3
- 3Call singled to center, Rosario scored, Lowe to second.0–2
- 2Young doubled to right, Call scored, García Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −19 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 10–819th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 146624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–21 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.