Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hedges homered to left (354 feet).9–1
- 8Schneemann homered to right (385 feet).8–1
- 8Santana scored on Salazar wild pitch.7–1
- 8Santana scored on Salazar wild pitch.7–1
- 7Kwan doubled to right, Rocchio scored.6–1
- 7Schneemann scored on Rutledge wild pitch, Rocchio to third on wild pitch by Rutledge.5–1
- 7Schneemann scored on Rutledge wild pitch, Rocchio to third on wild pitch by Rutledge.5–1
- 7Rocchio grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Jones scored, Schneemann third.4–1
- 6Adams homered to right center (397 feet).3–1
- 6Santana homered to right (368 feet), Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +11 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +21 Elo | CLE 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 10–718th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 146924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–21 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.