Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker singled to center, Donovan scored and Baker scored.0–5
- 5Winn doubled to left, Scott II scored.0–3
- 3Winn doubled to first, Nootbaar scored.0–2
- 3Nootbaar singled to right, Scott II scored, Nootbaar to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 62%
- ML PIT +150 / STL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- STL: Elo 60.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +72 Elo | STL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 14–67th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 26th of 301458 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–25 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–15 STL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 31.