Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burleson doubled to left, Contreras scored and Arenado scored.1–2
- 6Hayes doubled to center, Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PIT -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −8 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +35 Elo | STL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 13–69th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–25 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–14 STL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.