St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crews homered to left (393 feet), Tena scored.4–2
- 2Nootbaar doubled to right, Scott II scored and Pagés scored, Nootbaar to third.4–0
- 2Scott II singled to left, Gorman scored, Pagés to second.2–0
- 2Pagés singled to right, Contreras scored, Gorman to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- STL: Elo 56.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −5 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +42 Elo | STL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 10–1020th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 146124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–18 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 23–16 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–5 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.