Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Olson scored, Harris II to second on wild pitch by Shugart.3–2
- 11Olson scored on Shugart wild pitch, Harris II to second on wild pitch by Shugart.3–2
- 8Gorski reached on infield single to third, Bae scored, Gorski safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Riley.2–2
- 3Bart singled to center, Cruz scored, McCutchen to second.2–1
- 3Olson homered to center (431 feet).2–0
- 2Harris II doubled to right, Murphy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +5 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.426th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–14 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 11th of 301525 | Elo rating | 145726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–21 | 13–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–7 PIT in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.