Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin singled to right, Verdugo scored.2–3
- 9Harris II hit sacrifice fly to center, White scored.1–3
- 6McCutchen doubled to center, Reynolds scored.0–3
- 6Triolo homered to left (394 feet).0–2
- 3Canario homered to right (346 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–13 | Road vs home | 7–1228th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 145626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–20 | 12–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–6 PIT in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.