Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ozuna singled to left, Verdugo scored, Riley to second.1–2
- 9Harris II doubled to right, Fairchild scored.1–1
- 8Espinal singled to left, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML CIN +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 10–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 152511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–8 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.