Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting1-3
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Olson homered to left (321 feet), Riley scored.0–4
- 3Riley singled to center, Verdugo scored.0–2
- 3Verdugo doubled to right, Allen scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML CIN +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +3 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 9–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 152311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–16 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–7 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.