Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olson homered to center (411 feet).2–1
- 6Betts homered to left center (398 feet).2–0
- 4Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Betts scored, Freeman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML LAD -165 / ATL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −4 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +43 Elo | LAD 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 8–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 152611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–14 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–6 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.