Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Matt SauerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Rojas to third.2–15
- 8Rojas singled to left, Barnes scored, E. Hernández to second.2–14
- 8Pages homered to left (387 feet).2–13
- 7T. Hernández singled to center, E. Hernández scored.2–12
- 7Simon singled to right, Lopez scored.2–11
- 6Edman doubled to left, Smith scored and T. Hernández scored.1–11
- 6Smith doubled to right, Betts scored and Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.1–9
- 3Betts singled to center, Pages scored and Conforto scored.1–7
- 3Pages singled to center, Edman scored.1–5
- 2T. Hernández doubled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to third.1–4
- 1Edman hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.1–3
- 1T. Hernández doubled to center, Freeman scored.1–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right (394 feet).1–1
- 1Myers singled to center, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML MIA +170 / LAD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −4 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Dreyer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +103 Elo | LAD 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 13–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15591st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 19–9 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–9 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.