Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey LawrencePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to center (406 feet), Myers scored.8–4
- 6Polanco homered to right center (389 feet), Williamson scored and Crawford scored.6–4
- 5J. Sánchez homered to right (406 feet), Edwards scored.6–1
- 5Edwards singled to left, Hicks scored and Sanoja scored, Edwards to second.4–1
- 5Sanoja singled to center, Mervis scored, Sanoja to second, Hicks to third.2–1
- 5Hicks singled to left, Stowers scored, Mervis to second.1–1
- 2Moore homered to left (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 73%
- ML MIA +250 / SEA -310
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.2%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -265
- MIA +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.7 – 4.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +5 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +101 Elo | SEA 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 8–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 152310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–13 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.