Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-3
- Connor GillispiePitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mastrobuoni singled to center, Raley scored.0–14
- 7Garver homered to left (370 feet), Crawford scored.0–13
- 6Williamson singled to left, Raley scored, Williamson to second, Solano to third.0–11
- 4Williamson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Arozarena scored, Tellez out at second, Raley to third.0–10
- 4Tellez hit by pitch, Raleigh scored, Raley to second, Arozarena to third.0–9
- 4Polanco homered to right (389 feet).0–8
- 2Raley hit sacrifice fly to left, Polanco scored, Raleigh to third.0–7
- 1Mastrobuoni doubled to right, Tellez scored and Williamson scored.0–6
- 1Williamson doubled to left, Raleigh scored and Raley scored, Tellez to third.0–4
- 1Polanco homered to right (355 feet).0–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 67%
- ML MIA +195 / SEA -235
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.6%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −1 | MIA: Connor Gillispie: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +82 Elo | SEA 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 12th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 8–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 26th of 301464 | Elo rating | 152012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–13 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–3 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.