Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Edman singled to right, Conforto scored and Pages scored.6–7
- 10J. Sánchez doubled to right, Simon scored on error, J. Sánchez safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Pages.6–5
- 6Myers homered to center (405 feet), J. Sánchez scored, Wagaman scored and Norby scored.5–5
- 6Wagaman singled to center, Edwards scored, J. Sánchez to second.1–5
- 5T. Hernández homered to left (370 feet), Freeman scored.0–5
- 4Rojas doubled to left, Pages scored.0–3
- 3Betts singled to left, Muncy scored, Ohtani to second, Rojas to third.0–2
- 1Freeman singled to center, Ohtani scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML MIA +235 / LAD -290
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.0%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -249
- MIA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +123 Elo | LAD 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 12–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 18–9 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–8 LAD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.