Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Norby homered to left center (408 feet), Wagaman scored and Stowers scored.6–7
- 6Ramírez homered to left (421 feet).3–7
- 5Crawford homered to right center (417 feet), Arozarena scored.2–7
- 5Lopez grounded out to third, Norby scored.2–5
- 4Polanco singled to center, Rivas scored, Rodríguez to second.1–5
- 2Polanco doubled to center, Rivas scored, Rodríguez to third.1–4
- 2Rodríguez singled to right, Crawford scored and Mastrobuoni scored, Rivas to second.1–3
- 1Raleigh homered to right (368 feet).1–1
- 1Ramírez homered to center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML MIA +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +64 Elo | SEA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 9–616th of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 152311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–9 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–4 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.