Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Nick AllenBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Murphy singled to center, Olson scored.6–3
- 5Harris II doubled to center, Albies scored and Ozuna scored.5–3
- 4Allen reached on infield single to pitcher, Harris II scored, White to second.3–3
- 3Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to right, Verdugo scored.2–3
- 3Verdugo singled to left, White scored.1–3
- 1Goodman homered to left (402 feet), Beck scored and McMahon scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -180 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −1 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +80 Elo | ATL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 3–930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Elo rating | 141429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–3 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.