Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks doubled to right, Lopez scored, Norby scored and Sanoja scored.7–12
- 9Stowers homered to center (407 feet).4–12
- 8E. Hernández singled to left, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.3–12
- 8T. Hernández hit a ground rule double, Rojas scored.3–11
- 8Ohtani scored on Arias wild pitch.3–10
- 8Ohtani scored on Arias wild pitch.3–10
- 7E. Hernández singled to left, Muncy scored.3–9
- 6Freeman homered to right center (406 feet), Betts scored.3–8
- 6Betts tripled to right, Barnes scored and Ohtani scored.3–6
- 6Stowers doubled to left, Ramírez scored.3–4
- 4Stowers homered to center (423 feet), Wagaman scored.2–4
- 3Pages singled to center, Betts scored, T. Hernández to second.0–4
- 3Betts singled to left, Conforto scored and Ohtani scored.0–3
- 2Muncy homered to center (433 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML MIA +250 / LAD -310
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.3%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -265
- MIA +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 5.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +125 Elo | LAD 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 72.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.06th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 14–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 26th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 20–9 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–10 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.