Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley singled to center, White scored.8–2
- 6Toglia grounded into fielder's choice to second, Beck scored, Goodman out at second.7–2
- 6Riley singled to center, White scored.7–1
- 5Albies singled to right, Olson scored on fielding error by right fielder Moniak, Albies to second.6–1
- 4Allen singled to right, Albies scored and Murphy scored.5–1
- 4Harris II grounded out to first, Olson scored, Murphy to second, Albies to third.3–1
- 2Toglia homered to right (414 feet).2–1
- 2Harris II doubled to right, Murphy scored and Olson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML ATL -190 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +101 Elo | ATL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 3–1030th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 141329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 10–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–3 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.