Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting0-4, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Doyle homered to left center (421 feet).1–2
- 3Harris II grounded out to second, Baldwin scored, Allen to third.1–1
- 2Bouchard grounded out to shortstop, Goodman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML ATL -270 / COL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.2%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -234
- COL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +116 Elo | ATL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 19th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 3–1130th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15117th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 10–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–3 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.