Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman homered to center (416 feet), Ohtani scored and Betts scored.10–3
- 4Allen doubled to left, White scored.7–3
- 4Albies homered to right (368 feet).7–2
- 4Smith singled to right, T. Hernández scored.7–1
- 4T. Hernández reached on infield single to pitcher, Freeman scored on throwing error by pitcher Bummer, T. Hernández to second.6–1
- 4Freeman singled to left, Betts scored, Freeman to second.5–1
- 4Betts doubled to left, Ohtani scored.4–1
- 3T. Hernández singled to center, Betts scored.3–1
- 3Ohtani homered to center (415 feet).2–1
- 2White tripled to right, Albies scored.1–1
- 2Conforto grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Smith scored, Muncy out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML LAD +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- LAD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +1 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 1st of 301564 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–6 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.