Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rojas homered to left (365 feet).3–4
- 6Muncy grounded out to second, Betts scored, Freeman to third.2–4
- 4Muncy doubled to right, T. Hernández scored.1–4
- 3Riley homered to center (416 feet), Verdugo scored.0–4
- 1Riley homered to left center (426 feet), Verdugo scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / ATL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −10 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +36 Elo | LAD 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Elo rating | 152212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–15 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–6 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.